I’m
a firm believer in the 10-year cycle. I’d be the first to admit that it isn’t
the most scientific but it’s hard to ignore.
I
was a spectator of the 1987 crash, participated in the 1997 Asian Financial
Crisis and took advantage of the 2008 Global Recession. If the trend continues
the next one will be around 2017-2019. My personal belief is that the epicentre
would be the decade’s star, China. Given China’s political framework it could
be more than just a financial crisis, possibly a game changer.
My
game plan is to build up a war chest by selling down all investment properties
and equities by 2016. If you get the timing of a major crisis right you can sit
pretty for the rest of the cycle. As with the drops post crisis surges are as
unbelievable.
